Mathematical Models for Predicting the Future - Limitations and Ethics

Explore the power and limitations of mathematical models in predicting future events in this 59-minute lecture from The Royal Institution. Delve into how models shape our world, from pandemic response to economic regulation and climate change mitigation. Examine the validity of different modeling approaches, their potential biases, and the consequences of misinterpretation. Learn about data-driven and assumption-driven prediction methods, model evaluation techniques, and ethical considerations in modeling. Discover strategies for escaping "model land" and critically assessing model quality. Gain insights into the role of values in model creation, the importance of comparing multiple models, and the challenges of translating models into real-world behavior change.

Intro
Navigating the world with maths
Pandemic models
Data
In practice
Datadriven prediction questions
Assumptiondriven prediction questions
Escape from model land
How do we know if a model is good
Escape routes from model land
Evaluation of model quality
Values in models
Comparing models
Behavior change
Ethical considerations
ensembles of models
models vs reality