Will Covid Cause War or Peace? A Game Theory Investigation

Explore the complex relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and global conflict through a game theory lens in this 32-minute lecture. Delve into modern bargaining theory to assess how the coronavirus outbreak impacts the likelihood of war. Examine the logistical challenges posed by the pandemic and their effect on states' incentives for conflict. Investigate less obvious second-order consequences that could potentially increase hostilities. Analyze various war theories, including uncertainty injection, preventive war, and diversionary tactics. Gain insights into the nuanced and ambiguous overall impact of COVID-19 on international relations and the potential for armed conflict.

Introduction.
Negotiations and War.
Covid and Costs.
Three Classes of War Theory.
Injecting Uncertainty.
High Costs Don't Mean Peace.
Preventive War.
Reduced Peacekeeping.
Diversionary Incentives.
Conclusion.