Uncertainty Spillovers for Markets and Policy - Prof. Lars Hansen

Explore the complex interplay between uncertainty, financial markets, and economic policy in this thought-provoking lecture by Prof. Lars Hansen at the Alan Turing Institute. Delve into advanced methods for conceptualizing and quantifying uncertainty in economic analyses, drawing insights from decision theory. Examine two illustrative economies with limited understanding of long-term growth, investigating uncertainty's impact on financial market fluctuations and climate change policy design. Gain a deeper understanding of how incorporating uncertainty into economic models enhances our comprehension of financial markets and informs prudent policy-making. Learn about the differences between uncertainty quantification in economics and other sciences, considering both external observer and internal model perspectives. Discover the connections between this work and the seminal publications of Frank Knight and John Maynard Keynes on risk, uncertainty, and probability.

Introduction
Growth rate uncertainty
Quantitative models
Keynes
Decision Theory
Longrun risk
Restricted models
Rational expectation story
Relative entropy
Decentralized prices
Growth rate
Stochastic volatility
Economic policy and uncertainty
Social cost of carbon
Smooth ambiguity
Climate change uncertainty
Climate change economic uncertainty
Smooth ambiguity parameters
Explicit learning
Social cost
Questions