The Illusion of Certainty - Risk, Probability, and Chance

Explore the fascinating world of risk, probability, and chance in this thought-provoking 88-minute panel discussion from the World Science Festival. Delve into the complexities of data interpretation, decision-making, and pattern recognition as experts discuss how our brains process statistical information. Discover intriguing concepts like the Monty Hall problem, the birthday paradox, and the importance of phrasing in probability statements. Learn about real-world examples of numerical misunderstandings, such as the VerizonMath incident, and gain insights into how we conceptualize large numbers. Engage with discussions on evidential data processing, the role of priors in probability, and the results of unique experiments in ESP and number importance. Conclude with a reflection on fostering a more statistically literate society, equipping yourself with valuable knowledge to navigate the uncertain aspects of life.

Josh Tenenbaum and an experiment in ESP.
Risk, Probability, and Chance.
Marcus du Sautoy's Introduction.
Participant Introductions.
Are we good or bad at interpreting numbers?
The Monty Hall problem.
The fight or flight math means we understand numbers?
The "numbers are important" experiment.
VerizonMath: Verizon doesn't know Dollars from Cents.
If you play a lottery and there is 1 winner in a 1000, what is your percent of winning?
How well are our brains tuned for evidential data.
What is the birthday problem?
The way probability's are phrased are as important as the numbers.
Do we have a conception of a million?
What is a prior?
Josh Tenenbaum ESP experiment results.
"Numbers are important" experiment results.
How do we get a statistical society?