Polarized Politics: Past, Present, Future

Explore the causes and consequences of political polarization in the United States through this Harper Lecture by John Mark Hansen, Charles L. Hutchinson Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago. Delve into the historical context of partisan division, examining how it has evolved over 227 years since the Constitutional Convention. Analyze the current deadlock between Democrats and Republicans on pressing issues such as minimum wage, transportation, immigration, health care, and budget negotiations. Gain insights into the factors contributing to increased party unity and loyalty, and understand their impact on voter behavior, presidential approval ratings, and regional partisanship. Investigate the concept of political realignment and demographic shifts in the electorate, including the influence of birth cohorts on partisan balance. Consider potential future scenarios, including how Democrats might adjust their strategies and the role of independent voters in shaping the political landscape.

Introduction
Rising Party Unity
Rising Party Loyalty
Impact of Polarized Politics
partisan identification
Voter choice
Presidential approval
Baseline partisanship
Baseline partisanship by region
Political realignment
Political change
The electorate
Birth Cohorts
US Senate
partisan balance
Democrats will adjust
Independence