It's a Noisy World Out There

Explore the impact of noise on decision-making in this insightful conference talk by Linda Rising at GOTO Chicago 2023. Delve into cognitive biases, judgment variability, and surprising research findings that affect our choices. Learn about Paul Meehl's work, the Oregon Research Institute's studies, and the role of algorithms in decision-making. Discover the differences between bias and noise, and gain practical strategies for reducing noise in various contexts, including hiring processes and estimations. Understand the relationship between inside and outside views, and how reducing noise can lead to bias reduction. Gain valuable insights on improving decision-making while maintaining the importance of intuition in the process.

Intro
How do we make decisions?
Paul Meehl
Oregon Research Institute
What about algorithms?
Noise
Ask the right question
Bias vs noise
What to do?
Hiring & interviews
Estimations are bad
Inside vs outside views
Reducing noise reduces bias
Don't eliminate intuition
Summary
Outro