GCI Speaker Series: Probability, Statistics, and Philosophical Questions - Aubrey Clayton

Explore the intricacies of probability, statistics, and scientific modeling in this thought-provoking speaker series featuring Dr. Aubrey Clayton from Moody's Analytics Insurance Research Group. Delve into foundational concepts, economic data analysis, and common statistical fallacies such as Simpson's Paradox and the Prosecutor's Fallacy. Examine the philosophical questions surrounding probability theory and challenge the notion of statistical neutrality. Gain insights into the differences between scientific models and their applications. Engage with a comprehensive exploration of complex statistical concepts and their real-world implications in this 59-minute presentation recorded on March 15, 2023, as part of Chapman University's Grand Challenges Initiative.

Introduction
Three propositions
Foundations
Story
Economic Data
Simpsons Paradox
Probability
The Prosecutors Fallacy
Bernos Fallacy
The Problem with Probability
Philosophical Questions
Statistics is not morally neutral
Questions
What is scientific modeling
Difference between models
One last question