Forecasting Natural Disasters in Complex Earth Systems - SFI Lecture

Explore the complex world of natural disaster forecasting in this lecture from the Santa Fe Institute. Delve into the challenges of predicting catastrophic events like earthquakes, tsunamis, and hurricanes using advanced satellite data and numerical simulations. Learn about the application of chaos theory, ensemble forecasting, and pattern recognition methods in understanding high-dimensional nonlinear earth systems. Examine case studies including the 2004 Sumatra tsunami, Hurricane Katrina, and California earthquakes. Discover how space-time patterns and dynamic information are utilized to improve prediction accuracy for extreme events. Gain insights into the latest developments in disaster forecasting technology, including interferograms and general circulation models. Engage with audience questions to further understand the potential and limitations of natural disaster prediction in our chaotic and complex Earth.

Introduction
Hurricane Katrina
San Francisco Fault
Great Kanto Earthquake
Natural Hazards
Chaos
Shells
Sumatra Tsunami
Sri Lanka Tsunami
Ensemble Forecasting
California Earthquakes
Interferograms
General Circulation Models
Ensemble Classifiers
Pattern Method
Ensemble Classifier
Conclusion
California Floods
How good can predictions get
Measuring forces
SFI
Audience Questions