Earthquake Forecasting as a System-Science Problem - Gutenberg Lecture

Explore earthquake forecasting as a complex system-science problem in this AGU Fall Meeting Gutenberg Lecture. Delve into the challenges of predicting seismic events and the evolution of probabilistic seismic hazard models. Learn about recent advancements in earthquake system science, including the development of time-dependent probability models and deterministic earthquake simulators. Examine the integration of various constraints on earthquake location, magnitude, and frequency into hazard assessments. Discover how high-performance computational platforms are enabling more accurate physics-based models for ground motion prediction. Investigate the complexities of reconciling long-term stress renewal processes with short-term seismic clustering. Gain insights into outstanding issues in the field, such as data assimilation and rupture directivity forecasting, and their impact on ground motion predictions and overall seismic hazard assessment.

Introduction
Presentation
System Science
Earthquake System Science
Earthquakes are Complex
The Need for Better Operational Earthquake Forecasting
International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting
Prediction vs Forecasting
Diagnostic Precursors
Reliable Schemes
model types
Longterm forecasting
Stress renewal models
Earthquake simulators
Aftershocks
Canterbury Earthquake
Trisecuence
Aftershock Sequence Model
Long Term Models
Renewal Models
Medium Term Forecasting Gap
California Earthquake Models
Reed Renewal Model
Short Term Earthquake Probability Map
Uniform California Earthquake Probability Model
Earthquake Simulator
Simulation
Forecast Validation
CSEPS
Operational Use
Simulation Capability
System Model
Hazard Maps
Cyber Shake
Basin Effects
Timedependent Hazard Models
Example Calculation
Summary
Discussion