Election Night Analysis - Art or Science

Explore the intricacies of election night analysis in this informative conference talk by respected ABC Election Analyst Antony Green. Delve into the statistical processes used to call Australian elections, examining available data, assumptions for result prediction, and the robustness of the Australian process compared to the United States. Learn about the challenges of finalizing election results in Australia due to preferential voting and liberal postal and absent voting rules. Gain insights into the controversy surrounding media 'calling' of election results, the role of modeling based on past trends, and the timeline for official declarations. Understand the complexities of the 2022 Federal election, including the use of virtual tally rooms, post-election counting, and the statistical problems involved in prediction. Discover how scatter plots are utilized and the sources of potential errors in election night analysis.

Introduction
Credits
Australian Federal Elections
Counting
Indicating Preference Count
Virtual Tally Room
PostElection Counting
LCA History
The Statistical Problem
Prediction
Sources of Error
Scatter Plots
Election Night