Dream Cheating Scandal - Explaining All the Math Simply
Offered By: Mathemaniac via YouTube
Course Description
Overview
Syllabus
Disclaimer.
Background of the drama.
Binomial distribution.
Applying binomial distribution.
Bias 1: Stopping criterion.
Bias 2: Stream selection bias.
Bias 3: Runner selection bias.
Bias 4: p-hacking.
Mod team math summary.
Main criticism from astrophysicist.
Minor criticisms from astrophysicist.
Blatant mistake of astrophysicist.
Outro and endcard stuff.
: p-values mean getting AT LEAST as lucky as these success rates, not just as lucky..
: The streams aren't exactly independent, so this is not an exact answer, but it works as an overestimate nonetheless because they are positively correlated; if you are not convinced, you can also consider the Bonferroni correction, which is very close to this..
: I said 1.19 * 10^(-12), but the figure shown on screen is correct: 1.19*10^(-11)..
: 1000 is the UPPER BOUND, not an estimation.
: This is based on the faulty assumption that all speedrun attempts are streamed..
: The astrophysicist's 1 in 6300 is somewhat close to the chance of 18 heads in a row, or 19 of heads or tails in a row, so maybe some coding mistakes, or that he is exceptionally lucky in obtaining so many runs of 20 heads in his simulation..
Taught by
Mathemaniac
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