A Probabilistic Approach for Situation Awareness and Forecasting of COVID-19 in Norway

Explore a probabilistic model for estimating regional and local COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Norway through this informative talk. Gain insights into a metapopulation model that incorporates real-time mobile phone mobility data and multiple epidemiological time series. Learn about the novel split sequential Monte Carlo Approximate Bayesian Computation method developed to handle increasing parameter dimensions over time. Discover how this approach is actively used to inform Norwegian crisis teams about regional epidemiological situations. Understand the practical applications and challenges of modeling in pandemic management as presented by the Norwegian Institute of Public Health.

A probabilistic approach for situation awareness and forecasting of the COVID-19 pandemics in Norway