Level 3 Intelligence Analyst Certification

Predictive Intelligence Analysis

What you'll learn:

• Apply critical thinking skills during the analytic process
• Demonstate the role of probabilities in predictive analysis
• Create and use probability trees
• Create and use utility trees and utility matrices
• Create and use an advanced utility matrix
• Understand how Bayes applies to intelligence predictions
• Use Excel to apply Bayes to aid intelligence analysis

The views expressed in this course are the instructor's alone and do not reflect the official position of the U.S. Government, the Intelligence Community, or the Department of Defense.

This course builds on the Level 1 and Level 2 courses on Intelligence Analysis to teach the student how to think in probabilities and structure their analysis to produce predictive intelligence. Upon completion of the course, the graduate will be able to use MS Excel to apply the Bayes Theorem to participate in forecasting tournaments and make specific intelligence predictions to prevent surprise.