Decision trees and dealing with uncertainty

This free course introduces basic ideas of probability. It focuses on dealing with uncertainty in a financial context and explores decision trees, a powerful decision-making technique, which can help you to simplify and formulate business decisions. The course also includes videos that introduce the key ideas and guide you through numerous examples.

• Introduction
• Learning outcomes
• 1 Dealing with uncertainty: an introduction to probability
• 1 Dealing with uncertainty: an introduction to probability
• 2 Check your understanding of probability
• 2 Check your understanding of probability
• 3 Expected values
• 3 Expected values
• 4 Decision trees
• 4 Decision trees
• 4.1 Decision trees and expected value
• 4.2 A complex decision tree – deciding whether or not to launch a product early
• 4.3 A complex decision tree – developing a new pharmaceutical drug
• Conclusion
• References
• Acknowledgements