Anticipating the Future as a Leader

Learn techniques and habits to anticipate the future, and empower teams to navigate the future based on the art and science of forecasting and the psychology of managing uncertainty.

Introduction

• What it means to anticipate the future

1. Revealing Possible Futures

• Common ways people misread the future
• Deciding who to pay attention to
• Deciding what to pay attention to
• Using second-order thinking

2. Forecasting Backed by Math

• Discerning patterns
• Misconceptions about chance
• Using probabilistic thinking
• Finding base rates
• Balancing inside and outside views
• Calibrating confidence
• Skillfully updating your predictions

3. Helping Teams Navigate the Future

• Leading with clarity
• Turning your team into trend scouts
• Communicating your vision of the future

Conclusion

• Key takeaways