Probability Fundamentals

Probability is the business of decision making in the face of uncertainty, whether it's forecasting the future or inferring the past. The rules are simple enough, but applying them to realistic problems is usually gated by calculus.

To jump the gap, you'll use a simulation system that lets you apply the rules of probability as you learn them, without cranking through difficult calculations. The skills you'll develop are aimed at modeling real-world scenarios from risk management, to identifying fraud, to finding the right apartment in a hot market.
By the end, you'll have the tools to build your own models, and simulation skills that transfer directly to systems like Python or Excel.

• Introduction: Start by strengthening your existing probabilistic intuition!
• What Is Chance?: The basics of probability in the palm of your hand
• The Sum Rule: Learn the rule that lets us divide and conquer hard probability problems
• The Product Rule: Master sequences of random events
• Conditional Probability: Find out how probabilities change in light of new information.
• Probability with Conditions: Resolve a common medical misconception with conditional probability
• The Law of Total Probability: Discover our main tool for synthesizing conditional probabilities
• Simulation: Discover how computers can be powerful tools for modeling randomness.
• Intro to Simulation: Simulation can solve problems that would otherwise be out of reach
• Waiting Time: Probability can predict more than just how likely an event is