Perplexing Probability

Probability is full of counter-intuitive results and paradoxes.

Challenge yourself by learning how to mathematically master some very surprising games and experiments including the Monty Hall game show, the Boy or Girl paradox, and the Tuesday paradox.
Some prior knowledge of probability at the level of the Probability Fundamentals course is useful but not required for tackling this course.

• Introduction: Don't expect to get all of these questions correct – some of them initially stump almost everyone.
• Exposing Misconceptions: Challenge yourself with probability puzzles that trip up plenty of experts.
• Gaming Strategies: Learn some quick tips for solving probability problems.
• Probability is Everywhere: Discover some counterintuitive results when you applying probability to these real-life scenarios.
• Brain-Warping Probability: Most people's intuitions about the odds of winning these games are wrong.
• The Monty Hall Game: The famous mind-bender: find the car and avoid the man-eating goat!
• More Man-Eating Goats: What happens when Monty Hall has a lot more doors?
• The Boy-or-Girl Paradox: A small change of conditions can make a big difference.
• Tuesday Changes Everything: Explore this counterintuitive twist to the Boy-or-Girl Paradox.
• Bayes' Theorem Magic: This formula explains the behavior of many dependent probability scenarios.
• Crazy Mad Dice: Custom crafted competitive craziness.
• Crazy Dice Warmup: See what happens when the dice don't read 1 to 6 anymore.
• Competitive Design: Design your own die and try to beat your friends.
• Beating a Standard Die (I): Under what conditions, can you beat a standard die?
• Beating a Standard Die (II): Explore more scenarios that match a custom die against a standard one.
• 3-Player Competitions: Add a third player for added perplexity.
• Non-Transitive Superiority: When A beats B and B beats C, does A always beat C?